Monday, November 07, 2016

The ghosts of elections past...

In 2008 and 2012 I made predictions about the Presidential election, although not too accurately.

2008 I said Obama 311 McCain 277
2008  actual Obama 365 McCain 173

2012 I said Obama around 300
2012 actual Obama 332 Romney 206

It seems I have underestimated the Dems numbers both times.  2016 I think I am going all out.

2016 I say Hillary 323 to Trumps 215.

My track record is not too good on this so we will see.  I am not too sure about North Carolina, but this is what I am guessing.

This is actually the same as fivethirtyeight numbers and  Nate does have a good track record.  He also says Florida and NC are iffy. The tracking websites have been fighting about who is does the best guessing.  Huffington Post put up an article claiming Nate Silver had thrown out his statistical math and started changing the numbers.  All are saying Hill is set to win, even Fox News.

Anyway, in a month or two or three we will know who the President is.